EU civilians (MH17), 2,600 Ukrainians, and who knows how many Russians lost their lives. Is Russia Winning Ukraine 'War'? It is a measure of the gravity of the moment that Ukrainians accepted Poroshenko’s argument and, for the first time since independence, chose a president on the first ballot and with strong backing from across the country. His efforts to provoke the Russian speakers of “Novorossia” into rebellion have instead strengthened their support for Ukraine, particularly in the crucial regions of Dnipropetrovsk, Odessa and Kharkiv. This assertion may strike readers as bizarre since China's vital interests are not engaged in this war, nor does it participate in any of the negotiations. Remember all of those warnings from Putin and other Russians about the dangerous power of the far right and the worries that the euphoria of the pro-Europe protesters who rallied in Kyiv’s Maidan Square last winter would give way to rule by armed, brown-shirted militias? Given this deep regional divide, contesting the legitimacy of the outcome would not be difficult for Moscow. All of this is to be codified in a constitution or written framework that devolves authority to those regions. Almost two years after the start of the conflict in Ukraine, it is clear that China, not Russia, is the real victor. He simply wants the West to reserve the truly damaging sanctions for a potential phase of this conflict that he does not plan on entering. Ukraine war leaves many in squalid conditions. In a recent interview, Verkhovna Rada Speaker Andriy Paraubiy said the European Union decision to extend sanctions against Russia for its aggression against Ukraine is a sign that Ukraine is winning the information war against Russia. Moscow does not want to support these regions. By Christopher Harress @Charress 02/24/15 AT 2:06 PM. Upon annexing Crimea, Vladimir Putin outlined the terms of a prospective deal on Ukraine: Russian-speaking regions are to be given autonomy so that Russia can retain its influence, and—by proxy—a vote over Ukraine’s strategic orientation. Ukraine’s new leaders aren’t angels. During “Cold War II” (not generally acknowledged), the U.S. has stayed primarily on the periphery of global crises with Syria, Sebastopol, Crimea, Georgia, and the Ukraine. Ukraine, battling Russian-backed separatists, is the only European country at war. Yet in just five months, and in the face of occupation and annexation of its territory by its nuclear-armed neighbor, the Ukrainian state has started to rebuild and to develop an ambitious program of economic and political transformation. May 25 is rapidly approaching, marking a period when the dynamic in Ukraine changes and the battle for influence with it. Ukraine may have chance to take lost … For Ukrainians, this isn’t about the reshaping of the world’s geostrategic chessboard—who would chose to be a pawn in someone else’s power play? Ukraine’s second success is its unprecedented degree of national unity. For both Moscow and Kyiv, TV is the key to winning the hearts and minds of Ukrainians. Though subtle in nature, the past several weeks have witnessed the United States and Europe steadily moving into the passenger seat of events in Ukraine. This crisis is not about an American power play in the former Soviet Union— indeed, it often seems as if President Barack Obama privately wishes Ukraine’s democracy revolution would just fade away. In seeking to destabilize the new Ukraine, Putin isn’t trying to protect Russian speakers from the Ukrainian language. During that fragile interregum, Russia worked hard to undermine the new Ukraine. ... Russia may be winning the war, with the separatists point of view being taken more seriously, but sanctions are likely to trigger a recession. ... launch an offensive and is leading many to question whether Ukraine has sufficient forces to fight a more free-wheeling war in the east. If the Russian forces massed on Ukraine’s border invade, it will be because Putin has decided to show Russians, Ukrainians and the world that he has the power and the will to impose autocracy not just at home, but at gunpoint in foreign, sovereign states. Finally, as with Yanukovych, Putin has tragically overestimated his proxies in the separatist leadership of the Donbass. Ending the civil unrest is high on the new Ukrainian government’s to do list. The Russo-Ukrainian War (Ukrainian: російсько-українська війна, romanized: rosiisko-ukrainska viina) is a protracted conflict between Russia and Ukraine that began in February 2014. Russia then attempted to replicate the Crimean scenario in the geographic arc running from its satrap Transniestria in the southwest, along the Black Sea coast, then north to Kharkiv in the east. This is a moderating factor, because Russia is not interested in general, disorganized chaos and instability in Ukraine. At the moment, Russia holds most of the cards it needs to secure the original terms of its proposal for a compromise on Ukraine. .12/13/2020 4:08:16AM EST. No matter how hard Putin tries to spin it (or to turn from attack line into a reality), Ukraine isn’t a failed state, prey to domestic extremists and weakened by civil war. Ending the civil unrest is high on the new Ukrainian government’s to do list. That is good news for Ukrainians, but also for Europeans, for the rest of the world—and ultimately for Russians, too. Unfortunately for all of us, the Kremlin’s unrelenting aggression against Ukraine shows that Putin sees Ukraine’s democratic renaissance the way Skibinsky does. Ukraine’s third success is the consolidation of its post-revolutionary government. Moscow is also eager for a government that it can recognize, and one that could conclude the arrangements it desires. What does Russian President Vladimir Putin want from Ukraine? California's road to recovery runs through D.C. Republicans, Why New Jersey’s ventilator guidelines may favor younger, whiter patients, Rhode Island ends specific restrictions on New Yorkers — by making them national, Weekly Education: Coronavirus Special Edition. Start with Yanukovych, Putin’s would-be authoritarian junior partner. If Kyiv was to attempt a serious assault on the separatist regions, it would result in civilian casualties, and could precipitate either a Russian invasion, or spark a genuine civil war in those regions. (Evgeniy Maloletka/AP) Here’s how Max Skibinsky, a Russian Silicon Valley venture capitalist, describes it. Is Russia Winning Ukraine 'War'? With two elections next year, Ukraine is facing upheaval on the domestic front. The first success is the consolidation, maturity and determination of Ukraine’s civil society. It also depends on the definition of "war".And it also depends on the definition of "win".And finally it depends on which media source you believe. That serves nobody’s purpose in Ukraine. ... launch an offensive and is leading many to question whether Ukraine has sufficient forces to fight a more free-wheeling war in the east. That question leads to a second question "In whose eyes?" There is more chatter out of Eastern Ukraine that suggests Kiev might be willing to give in to the separatists’ demands of regional autonomy. Read also Russia warns Ukraine against new warship crossings via Kerch Strait Here’s the question, not of the day, but of the month: Who’s Winning the War in Ukraine? Hence Kyiv is trying to do enough to satisfy the political necessities of the West, but staying short of inciting a heavy-handed Russian response. Russia has gained enough leverage on the ground to force negotiations on autonomy, but it lacks influence over Kharkiv or Odessa, important cities and industrial centers. There'll be no end to the war between Russia and Ukraine while it suits political elites on both sides to keep fighting. But just because the Western countries like Ukraine doesn’t mean they’re willing to help them. In the historic fight over the future of democracy in Ukraine, Kyiv is winning and the Kremlin is losing. The following is an incomplete list of major wars fought by Ukraine, by Ukrainian people or regular armies during periods when independent Ukrainian states existed, from antiquity to the present day. Western leaders have a serious problem on their hands. But in determining how to respond, it is essential to understand this standoff has been created by the surprising and growing strength of Ukrainian democracy—and by Vladimir Putin’s refusal to allow a peaceful democracy to exist on his western border. 1 Nov 2014. Units from the newly annexed Republic of Crimea were near the forefront of the parade. There are dozens of examples from the past few weeks of Kiev trouncing Moscow in the information war. Putin Is Winning the Ukraine War on Three Fronts. Ukraine lost … In a recent interview, Verkhovna Rada Speaker Andriy Paraubiy said the European Union decision to extend sanctions against Russia for its aggression against Ukraine is a sign that Ukraine is winning the information war against Russia. Is Russia Winning Ukraine 'War'? That may sound like a simple question, but it isn't. Russia’s bellicose brinksmanship has made Ukraine’s eastern border the world’s most dangerous tripwire—it is no exaggeration to worry we could be on the edge of the greatest conflict since the World War II. Believe it or not, on 1 October it was eclipsed by a far bigger story for Ukrainians: Putin is winning Europe’s only war. ”When Ukraine will meet those (NATO) criteria – possibly within the next 5-6 years – then the people of Ukraine will make their choice,” Poroshenko said. The biggest question in world affairs today is whether Russia will take the immense gamble of explicitly invading Ukraine rather than allow its proxies to be defeated. It depicts the crisis in Putin’s own macho terms. No to Capitulation!’ shouted an angry crowd outside Mr Zelensky’s presidential office this weekend. Copied United States military planes recently flew over Ukraine … Already, Kyiv has recaptured about 75 percent of the territory once held by the separatists. From the beginning of March 2014, in the aftermath of the 2014 Ukrainian revolution and the Euromaidan movement, protests by Russia-backed anti-government separatist groups took place in the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine, collectively called the "Donbass". And what's likely to happen next? Either way, it makes sense for Russia to start unwinding that relationship. https://www.politico.com/.../story/2014/08/kiev-is-winning-the-war-109935 “The main risk of war is that it can exhaust us without exhausting the enemy. Ukraine is winning the war. "Ukraine’s future is being determined by an unpredictable battle for leverage on the ground.". To understand the scale of that achievement, here is the last group of Russians who were not ruled by khans, czars, communist chairmen, or KGB generals: the Free Novgorod Republic. This is a young country swiftly uniting around the democratic idea in the face of foreign aggression. The real purpose of this drama was to lessen the rationale for new Western sanctions as a punishment for the actions of the separatists. Whatever government comes next, it will blame them for either incompetence or belligerence. That may sound like a simple question, but it isn't. “They [the Ukrainians] are the first large group of ethnic ‘Russians’ who become free on their own power and valor. China is winning the war in Ukraine. Moscow’s latest turn in this crisis is an effort to distance itself from the separatists so that they can be set up as an independent group to negotiate with Kyiv. And what does " winning " mean? President Turchynov vacillates between stating that his government is effectively helpless to restore order in the East, and vowing that counterterrorism operations will continue. Moscow has been using the threat of invasion to establish a ceiling for what Kyiv can hope to accomplish in its military operations, lest Ukraine and the West wish to risk a Russian invasion, and they do not. On June 12, three T-72 tanks rolled through portions of eastern Ukraine. Chrystia Freeland: Ukraine is winning the war The fog of war, the ADHD of cable news and the smears of Russian propaganda have combined to obscure some important good news in this dismal summer. Chrystia Freeland is the federal member of parliament for Toronto Centre and the author of Plutocrats: the Rise of the New Global Super-Rich and the Fall of Everyone Else. Another important point to note is that Ukraine’s national consolidation includes its business elite. To recognize them now could both preclude a deal with Kyiv after the election and inherently make Russia responsible for their fate. How did the war in Ukraine start? These three elements—civil society, state and national unity—account for Ukraine’s fourth success: since May 15, when the steel workers of the eastern city of Mariupol took to the streets to force would-be separatists to leave, Ukraine has steadily been pushing back the Russian-led insurgents. Such a step is difficult to reverse, but the threat to recognize them has a long shelf life. Alternatively, if the separatists prove uncontrollable or burdensome, they will have to be sacrificed like pawns. The notion that all of Ukraine can be pulled into a Western orientation now appears unrealistic and naïve. Eight weeks after Ukraine’s new government and pro-Russian separatists in the country’s east agreed to a cease-fire, the war continues to simmer. 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